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Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs held a panel discussion Monday afternoon on the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

On Thursday morning, Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of eastern Ukraine after Russia officially recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics — two self-proclaimed states controlled by pro-Russian forces in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

The panel — “What’s at Stake in Ukraine” — was moderated by Associate Professor Margarita Estevez-Abe of Maxwell’s political science department. It was attended by around 80 people in person and over 100 people online. Four panelists discussed the current situation on the battleground, possible solutions to de-escalate the conflict and the long-term impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine as well as its impact on the rest of the world.

Photo by Francis Tang | Asst. News Editor; Photo Illustration by Maya Goosmann | Digital Design Director

“We need to understand Putin as someone who’s emotional. He’s resentful about how he feels Russia was mistreated after the end of the Cold War,” said Brian Taylor, a professor in Maxwell’s political science department, in the panel. “He believes that Russia deserves a status as a great power with the right to determine the domestic and foreign policy of its neighbors, including Ukraine.”

“Many people have said that Vladimir Putin is a thief and a kleptocrat, and all he’s interested in is power and money,” Taylor said. “If all he was interested in was power and money, this would be a suicidal decision.”

Russia’s invasion has attracted condemnation and severe sanctions from all across the globe. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed an executive order Sunday, directing all state agencies and authorities to divest public funds from Russia. Hundreds of Syracuse community members gathered at St. John the Baptist Ukrainian Catholic Church on the same day to stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

SU Chancellor Kent Syverud sent a campus-wide email Friday condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He also said during Wednesday’s University Senate meeting that the conflict may be a potential challenge for the university community given the large Ukrainian and Russian population at SU, as well as the high percentage of students, faculty and staff currently on active duty in military, guards and reserves.

Authoritarian regimes such as Russia, Taylor said, face two threats: one from the elites inside the system and the other from the population at large. In the five days since the invasion, both threats have increased significantly partially due to the severe sanctions on the regime, he said.

While Russia and other pro-Russian states try to justify the invasion by creating the rhetoric blaming NATO’s eastward expansion, Taylor pointed out that NATO hasn’t moved closer to the Russian border since 2004, when the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — joined the alliance.

Countries that joined NATO after 2004 are the Balkans and other tiny states that pose no threat to Russia, Taylor said, including Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. It’s hard to make a credible argument that the crisis happening in 2022 is because of something NATO has done decades ago, Taylor said.

Michael Williams, an associate professor in Maxwell’s public administration and international affairs department, said Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has not only united NATO nations against Russia but also shifted the consensus of many European countries that used to be neutral between Russia and the West.

“In the span of less than a week, (Putin has) managed to seemingly overturn the German consensus on military spending and peaceful policy towards Russia. He’s managed to have both Sweden and Finland — neutral countries throughout the entire Cold War — (to) send weapons to Ukraine,” Williams said. “So he’s really brought a lot together in that sense.”

Williams acknowledged concerns regarding a larger or full-scale conflict between NATO nations and Russia if Ukraine falls under Russian control as Ukraine shares its border with multiple NATO countries.

He also discussed Russia’s potential deliberate action to provoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state as an armed attack against them all. While Russia is trying to escalate the situation, potentially dividing the alliance, NATO is trying to maintain cohesion and keep things from escalating, Williams said.

Photo by Francis Tang | Asst. News Editor; Photo Illustration by Maya Goosmann | Digital Design Director

Osamah Khalil, an associate professor in Maxwell’s history department, discussed the history of the Cuban Missile Crisis to reflect on the current situation in Ukraine. There are lessons to be drawn from the similar situation 60 years ago, both for scholars and policymakers, he said.

“For many Americans, we often think of the Cuban Missile Crisis being initiated by the Soviet Union putting missiles in Cuba,” Khalil said. “But from Moscow, it was about the U.S. putting missiles in Turkey.”

Khalil highlighted the need for compromise and reduced tensions, as well as diplomacy and mutual understanding. Diplomacy, both on the stage and behind the scenes, plays an indispensable role in de-escalating military crises, he said.

Khalil said if the U.S. had higher credibility in international law, it would help the situation. The series of invasions and interventions conducted by the U.S. in the past 20 years has drastically undermined that strength. It is one thing that both Russia and China are closely looking at and actively utilizing to legitimize their rationale, he said.

“The breaking of international law is bad. The invasion of another country is awful. War is terrible.” Khalil said. “And that should be equal. We shouldn’t just pick who are worthy (and) who are unworthy victims.”

Catherine Bertini, an emeritus professor of practice in Maxwell’s public administration and international affairs department, joined the panel over Zoom. She discussed the role of the United Nations in the recent conflict, adding that the U.N. has limited options in intervening in the current conflict. She said, however, it can provide more on the humanitarian side of the crisis.

Bertini said many humanitarian assistance programs to Ukraine are currently underway, such as the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees’ effort in helping Ukrainian nationals flee the country.

“These U.N. organizations are working with them on not only cross-border issues but issues within the country,” Bertini said. “I think we’ll see very strong, robust U.N. humanitarian operations working out (and) save lives.”

Published on March 1, 2022 at 12:41 am

Contact Francis: btang05@syr.edu | @francis_towne