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After coming off an undefeated 2020 season, expectations were high for the Orange this season. They didn’t add offensive powers like Duke’s Michael Sowers and Brennan O’Neill, but they returned eight All-Americans. It was good enough to be named Atlantic Coast Conference favorites in the preseason coaches poll.

A season-opening loss to Army shattered those expectations and a blowout win against then-No. 2 Virginia built them back up. Through seven games — just over half the season — Syracuse (4-3, 1-2 ACC) continues to tear down and then restore the hype surrounding a program that hasn’t won a national championship since 2009.

Here are the numbers that have defined Syracuse’s season thus far.

Faceoff struggles

Faceoffs have hurt SU the most this year, particularly from Jakob Phaup. Phaup was slated to be Syracuse’s primary FOGO, coming off an All-America honorable mention and the highest faceoff percentage in the ACC.

In the Orange’s first two games, he won nearly 64% of his faceoffs against Army and Virginia. Then he struggled against Vermont’s Tommy Burke, winning just six of 21 faceoffs before being replaced by Danny Varello. He bounced back against unranked Stony Brook and Holy Cross, and then won only one faceoff in each of the last two games.

The correlation between winning faceoffs and scoring goals is obvious, but it’s even more prominent for Syracuse. Per Lacrosse Reference, the Orange score on 39.2% of their possessions after winning a faceoff, the third-highest percentage in the country. 

Against Duke, Syracuse won eight faceoffs, one by Phaup and seven by Varello. Syracuse scored on four of those possessions — and a fifth ended at the end of the quarter instead of a turnover. The Orange won 25% of their faceoffs that night, yet only lost by one goal. If the faceoff unit was more efficient, the offense may have had more possessions to operate.

Relentless offense

Even with limited possessions due to poor faceoffs, the Orange still have one of the best offenses in the country. They have the fifth-hardest schedule in the country, per Lacrosse Reference, yet still average 15 goals per game.

Notre Dame gave up four more goals than its average to Syracuse. Duke gave up five more. For the most part, opposing defenses are unable to come up with an answer for Pat March’s offense — a unit that’s had just one scoreless quarter (fourth quarter against Notre Dame on Saturday) during March’s tenure. The Orange score on 35.5% of their possessions and average over a shot per possession.

After scoring on 11 of 24 offensive possessions in a blowout loss to Notre Dame, head coach John Desko commended his offense. “As crazy as it sounds, we probably didn’t play that bad offensively for the amount of time we had the ball,” Desko said postgame.

And when the Orange do shoot, they’re pretty accurate. Their 34.7% shot percentage ranks sixth in the country. That number includes an abysmal 15-for-65 performance against Holy Cross. Of the teams in the top five, just Duke and Albany are on Syracuse’s schedule this year. 

Syracuse’s offense has rarely been the problem this year. All three of Syracuse’s losses have come against teams that rank in the top-12 of defensive efficiency, and the Orange were still able to hold their offensive weight.

Stephen Rehfuss’ breakout and Chase Scanlan’s tough luck

Rehfuss was added to the Tewaaraton Watch List this week, and for good reason. The redshirt senior leads Syracuse in points and assists and ranks second in goals. Lacrosse Reference lists him at 22nd in the country in offensive goals added, a statistic that weighs goals and assists and adjusts by position. He ranks second in the country in shooting percentage (52.9%), too. 

His fellow attack Scanlan, on the other hand, has had worse luck. Scanlan’s taken 45 shots on goal this season, 18 more than anyone else on the team, yet ranks sixth in shot percentage. He’s not taking bad shots, but less than half of his on-target efforts have gone in. 

The Orange have played against several good goalies, but Scanlan seems to be the one that has been burned by it the most. Rehfuss, on the other hand, has two fewer goals than Scanlan on 23 fewer shots on goal. Owen Hiltz, the third starting attack, has scored 14 times on 27 shots on goal. 

Scanlan scored seven goals against Holy Cross, but has been relatively quiet outside of that game, scoring 13 goals in his other six games. 

Defensive implosions

The Orange aren’t shy to admit that their defense has struggled at times this year. Desko pointed to a second quarter defensive collapse against Notre Dame. Defender Mitch Wykoff said that the starting defense didn’t have much time to learn one another’s tendencies this offseason, making it difficult to play together as a cohesive unit for the first few games. 

But seven games in, the unit’s play has remained inconsistent. The Orange rank 46th in defensive efficiency, giving up a goal on 30% of opponent possessions. This aligns with their 12.7 goals allowed per game, 47th in the nation.

Syracuse’s defense is struggling, and so is Drake Porter. The preseason first team All-American ranks 42nd in the country with a 12.4 goals against average and 34th with a career-low .520 save percentage. The defense has struggled to contain some big names like Brendan Nichtern and Pat Kavanagh, making Porter’s job more difficult.

Maybe Wykoff was right, and the defense needs more time to adjust together as a unit. But they’re running out of time. The Orange have five games left and are last in the conference. If nothing changes, they may find themselves scrambling to piece themselves together for an NCAA Tournament run.

Published on April 5, 2021 at 10:31 pm

aekaylor@syr.edu | @cincinnallie